Climate Trends and Extremes in the Indus River Basin, Pakistan: Implications for Agricultural Production

نویسندگان

چکیده

Historical and future projected changes in climatic patterns over the largest irrigated basin world, Indus River Basin (IRB), threaten agricultural production food security Pakistan, particular for vulnerable farming communities. To build a more detailed understanding of impacts climate change on agriculture s IRB, present study analyzes (1) observed trends average temperature, precipitation related extreme indicators, as well seasonal shifts recent historical period (1997–2016); (2) statistically downscaled projections (up to 2100) from set models conjunction with crop-specific information four main crops IRB: wheat, cotton, rice sugarcane. Key findings show an increasing trend about 0.1 °C/year minimum temperature across area period, but no significant maximum temperature. shows positive annual increase driven mainly by August September. Future highlight continued warming resulting critical heat thresholds analyzed being increasingly exceeded into future, Kharif season. Concurrently, inter-annual rainfall variability is up 10–20% end 21st century, augmenting uncertainty water availability basin. These provide insight nature IRB emphasize importance using impact assessments develop targeted investments efficient adaptation measures ensure resilience Pakistan future.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Atmosphere

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['2073-4433']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030378